LEAVING St Conleth’s Park last Saturday night it was extremely difficult to assess just how good Kildare are. One thing is for sure: we will find out this Saturday night.
After negotiating a tricky tie against Antrim and winning a game against Leitrim we were never realistically going to lose, Kildare are back to the real do-or-die stuff now.
A win beside the Foyle could be the making of Kieran McGeeney’s team.
Yes, Derry appear to be in turmoil. But they are still a division one side, with a fantastic depth of talent on paper, and above all that, there is a psychological barrier to winning in Celtic Park. Mentally stronger Kildare tend to be under McGeeney; this tie is the ultimate test of that.
In recent times, the venue holds nothing but depressing memories. In 2006, under John Crofton, we were taught a real lesson by the Oak Leaf men in a second round qualifier on a very dark day for Kildare football.
Lest we blame Crofton alone for that, we should remember that Kildare fared even worse there in the league in 2008, when Derry annihilated us in the early days of the McGeeney project.
We will not be embarrassed like that on Saturday. Kildare are a much better side now than they were then, and Derry are not as good.
But they will still be formidable. Much has been said about their struggles to beat Carlow and Westmeath, but they were still comfortable enough away wins.
Fergal Doherty is likely to be back and I would not be surprised to see Derry boss Damian Cassidy and star man Paddy Bradley kiss and make up between now and Saturday night.
Kildare will have to improve vastly from the Leitrim game if we are to win. Our work-rate off the ball is back to somewhere close to 2009 levels; it is what we do when we have the ball that will decide our fate.
And for large swathes of the Leitrim game, what we did when we had the ball was not very good at all. Too many Kildare players are taking the wrong option in possession and giving it away too easily. Take out the second half in Belfast, and it has been the story of Kildare so far in the qualifiers: strong defending, plenty of hunger to win ball, but a lack of creativity and firepower in the final third.
And yet, as that second half in Casement showed, the ability is there. To win in Celtic Park, it must be there from the first whistle.
There are encouraging signs. Management have done the right thing in switching Eamonn Callaghan into a sort of sweeper role. He is so much better coming on to the ball than he is with his back to goal. In his new position he can showcase his foot-passing and ball-carrying skills to full effect.
His rival for man-of-the-match was James Kavanagh, while Peter Kelly has been impressive with some wonderfully disciplined aggression a feature of his defending.
Those two, and every Kildare player, face a much bigger test on Saturday night. The key will be in how they answer the questions put to them.
To win, Johnny Doyle must put his free-taking difficulties behind him, as his second half efforts against Leitrim suggested he might.
To win, the likes of Padraig O’Neill will have to top off their good work by showing a keener eye for a score.
To win, we will need at least one goal I would think – too many Kildare players are taking the soft option of tapping or fisting over when the likes of Kerry or Tyrone would show a killer instinct and rattle the net. For this reason, we may see Alan Smith at some stage.
To win, we will have to cut out silly mistakes to a minimum – the likes of Emmet Bolton and Darryl Flynn and Ronan Sweeney and several others are playing really well and showing great appetite, but still coughing up possession too easily at times.
It is a massive night for this side. The result will be the difference between a bad season and a very exciting one.
But I would not underestimate the mettle of this side. Slated after the Louth game, they have shown self-belief and mental strength to bounce back. There are question marks over whether they can close out a game in a venue like Celtic Park against good opposition.
Questions the Lilies have the character to answer.