Football statistics predictor gives Ireland 8% chance of World Cup qualification

James Cox

It's a good thing the Republic of Ireland is a team that thrives on being the underdog, as a football statistics company has given the Boys in Green an 8.4 per cent chance of World Cup qualification.

Ireland will have a tough path to securing a place in the United States, having to overcome the Czech Republic in Prague before a possible home playoff final against Denmark or North Macedonia.

Ireland have bad memories of facing the Danes, including a 5-1 defeat at the Aviva Stadium that ended dreams of qualification for the 2018 World Cup.

However, not many people would have predicted two famous wins in the space of a week as Troy Parrott's five goals fired Heimir Hallgrímsson's team to victories over Portugal and Hungary.

It showed Ireland does not mind being the underdog and that will be the case again according to We Global Football.

For Path D, their qualification odds are Denmark (48.6 per cent), Czech Republic (39.8 per cent), Republic of Ireland (8.4 per cent) and North Macedonia (3.2 per cent).

UEFA World Cup Playoffs - Qualifying Probabilities

Path A
🇮🇹 Italy - 62.2%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales - 30.0%
🇧🇦 Bosnia-Herzegovina - 4.0%
Northern Ireland - 3.8%

Path B
🇺🇦 Ukraine - 42.6%
🇵🇱 Poland - 26.3%
🇸🇪 Sweden - 21.1%
🇦🇱 Albania - 10.0%

Path C
🇹🇷 Türkiye - 52.2%
🇸🇰 Slovakia - 26.8%
🇽🇰…

— We Global Football (@We_Global) November 20, 2025

The grim reading for Ireland quickly went viral, but fans remained defiant insisting better odds are deserved after the stunning victories over Portugal and Hungary.