Plenty of  permutations ahead of Kildare final SFC group games

This weekend sees the final round of games down for decision in the Joe Mallon Motors Senior Football Championship with the games set to take place in Cedral St Conleth’s Park, Manguard Park and Clane’s Conneff Park. RICHARD COMMINS previews the final round of games.

So, here’s what we know at this stage in the blue riband competition of Kildare football:

1. Five-in-a-row chasing Naas and the team they beat in the Senior League Final, Sarsfields, are definitely through to the Quarter Finals, taking some of the edge off their final round game in Group B on Sunday.

2. Clane and Moorefield are definitely into the knockout stages thanks to two wins each in Group C and their final round game on Saturday will determine which goes straight through to the Quarter Final rather than dilly dally around with a Preliminary Round game.

3. Johnstownbridge, Celbridge and Athy are securely through to the knockout stages in Group A but none of them have a Quarter Final berth nailed down just yet. A win for Celbridge over Clogherinkoe would see them safely into the Quarter Final while another of last year’s semi-finalists Athy need to beat Johnstownbridge to join them. Otherwise, their opponents will join Celbridge in the last eight and Athy will have to go the Preliminary Quarter Final route.

4. Clogherinkoe are out after Saturday’s final game against Celbridge. Even a win there will at best put them level with Athy, but the head-to-head rule would see the latter finish third in the Group.

5. Raheens or Maynooth are effectively playing off for a Preliminary Quarter Final spot having picked up no points between them in Group B. A draw would suffice for Maynooth, but Raheens need a win.

6. In Group C, Kilcock and Allenwood are pointless so far and their meeting on Sunday in Clane is effectively a Relegation semi-final. Thanks to their better scoring difference, a draw would suffice for a Kilcock team who, remarkably, have scored six goals in their two group games to date.

7. Group D is where you’d need a degree in mathematics to work out the permutations and combinations. Caragh have won both games to date but are not even guaranteed a knockout place, though it would take a freak of nature and mathematics for them to miss out.

A Caragh defeat to Carbury and a win for Eadestown over Confey would lead to a three-way tie on four points. In that scenario the mini-league scenario applies where the scoring difference in games involving the three tied teams only will determine their final positions. Caragh, however, go into that scenario with a +14 score difference with Carbury on -3 and Eadestown on -11.

My trusty calculator tells me it would take a Carbury win by nine points to overtake Caragh in first place (Quarter Final berth) and a twenty-six-point collapse from Caragh for Eadestown to sneak into second place (Preliminary Quarter Final).

Eadestown, after that great win against Carbury last time out, will finish second, however, if they beat Confey and Caragh beat Carbury. A draw would also suffice in that scenario.

Carbury can top the group if they beat Caragh and Confey beat Eadestown, with Carbury prevailing in that instance on the head-to-head with Caragh.

8. What about the relegation battle in Group D? Again, clear as mud with the possibility of more another mini-league situation. However, what is clearcut is that Confey (on no points) need to win against Eadestown (two points) to have a chance of survival. If they win and Carbury also win they will send Eadestown into the relegation final on the head-to-head rule.

It gets complicated if Confey and Caragh win. That will leave Carbury, Eadestown and Confey in a three-way battle to determine second, third and fourth places in the group.

Eadestown would go into that mini-league scenario with the better scoring difference (+3) but it’s all very tight with Carbury currently on +1 and Confey on -4. A Confey win by four points would see them sending Eadestown dropping into the relegation final while they could still reach the knockouts themselves with a six-point win.

The good news for Carbury is that there is no scenario in which they can finish bottom of the group, thanks to their scoring difference so far, so their senior status, which they have clung to throughout their one-hundred-year history, remains intact.

For what it’s worth I see wins for Athy, Celbridge, Maynooth, Naas, Moorefield, Kilcock, Caragh and Eadestown this weekend.

Athy will be pushed to the pin of their collar and their game with Johnstownbridge should be a thriller on form to date. Any vote for Athy is a tentative one after their no-show against Celbridge.

The Naas-Sarsfields match would have been a thriller if played in round one or two but you’d expect a degree of shadowboxing. Sarsfields could do with a win over the champions at this stage, but the same could have been said for the League final when they faced a weaker opponent than they will on Sunday.

Moorefield and Clane could be spicy enough with a last eight spot at stake. Moorefield have been quietly efficient and impressive whereas Clane are not quite getting it together at both ends of the field consistently.

The game with arguably most at stake sees Allenwood and Kilcock face each other. Kilcock survived one relegation final last year and they have chances to do so again. If they can keep scoring goals they may have enough for Allenwood who haven’t won all year. There won’t be much in it.

Group D should produce two humdingers as outlined above. Carbury may be the best team Caragh face since Raheens in the Preliminaries so it will be interesting to see if they have learned from that reversal. They get a tentative vote as do Eadestown against a Confey side who played some wonderful football last time against Caragh. This is the group to keep an eye on this weekend.

But have the calculators ready.